Opponent’s options: Row l plays (hooking NOW), QUAI(L) m3, YOW/YAW 12b
Candidate plays: MIDlINES n8 (70), MINE 12d (34), IMINE 12c (38), MI 12d (18)
Potential plays on next turn: Various bingos
Subgoal: Maximize the product of: (Bingo%)(Odds of winning assuming bingo)
Resolution: Here, you’re simply not going to win without a bingo. Even a play like MINE or IMINE isn’t going to win, as your opponent can easily play the Q, yet your blank doesn’t help the Q enough to outscore your opponent. No, your best chances are definitely in a bingo.
And you can play a bingo right now: MIDlINES. The problem is that doing so empties the bag with a small lead, into a pool that is pretty ugly where you don’t have endgame timing. You’ll almost surely need to draw the blank to win, and if your opponent hasn’t been playing a lot of tiles, it’s much more likely to be in your opponent’s rack than in the bag.
The best way to achieve both goals is playing MI. MI doesn’t win nearly as often as MINE/IMINE when you do draw a bingo, but when you do draw a bingo next turn you will be much more likely to win than you would after playing MIdLINES.