Opponent’s options: Row 13 parallels, column d -FF plays, row 7 hooks closing bingo lines
Candidate plays: SEATINg b1 (87), NEAT b1 (29), TWEEN 2b (20)
Potential plays on next turn: Bingos, high point tile draws
Subgoal: Score enough points in the next two plays to overtake your opponent.
Resolution: The problem with bingos is that you cede endgame timing without much of a lead. Your opponent is very likely to overtake you down 15 points when you have 6 tiles in your rack: you’ll need both the K and the F to have much of a chance, and even then you still might not win.
The problem with NEAT is different: you might not get any bingo at all. Keeping only IS? with a vowel heavy pool and the threat of duplicate Is or the K/F ruining your bingo chances is difficult, and when combined with a 7b 4 tile play such as DISK blocking the all of your bingo lines, NEAT simply won’t work. To win, you’ll have to create a bingo line elsewhere.
TWEEN is effective not just because it sets up your A, but it sets up row 1 in case your A is blocked with 7b plays. If your opponent has a weak rack and can’t block, you’ll be likely to win as long as you draw any of the remaining consonants in the bag.
Despite many possible bingos, these bingos still leave you as a substantial underdog as they only give you a slight lead while seceding endgame to your opponent. Your best option here is to abandon the immediate option and play TWEEN, forking the board open along row 1 and column A, especially with a seemingly vowel heavy pool. TWEEN gives you better bingo options as well as endgame timing for your opponent.